Are Coffee Prices Falling? What It Means for Your Cup

Yes, the wholesale price of coffee beans fell sharply in September 2026. By the week of 22 September, prices had reached a three-month low, according to market reporting from that week. That drop is for raw beans traded on commodity markets, not for the coffee in your cup. A lower bean price can feed through to cafes and shops over time, but it does not follow that your flat white will get cheaper next week. As of October 2026, no reliable UK figures on cafe prices were available to check.

What happened to coffee prices

Raw coffee prices fell sharply in September 2026. The fall is a market move, and it can happen well before a new crop reaches shops. That is why a headline about falling prices can appear long before any change on the menu.

Why the price fell

Barchart, a market data provider, linked the September drop to three things:

estimated global surpluses of coffee,
good growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, and
rising exports from Brazil.

Put simply, more coffee is expected to be available than buyers had planned for. When supply looks comfortable, traders push prices down.

What the harvest forecasts say

Brazil’s harvest drives most of the forecasts being quoted. Two forecasts for the 2026/27 season were reported in late September 2026, and they do not agree:

USDA (the US Department of Agriculture) forecasts a record Brazilian crop of 71.9 million 60kg bags, up 14% on last year. Arabica is forecast at 47.5 million bags, up 25%.
Conab (Brazil’s national crop agency) estimates a total of 67.6 million bags, up more than 19%. It puts arabica at 48.2 million bags, up 34.8%, but still below the record crops of 2018 and 2020. Robusta is estimated at 19.4 million bags, down 6.6% from last year’s record.

The two totals differ by about 4.3 million bags. If you read either figure elsewhere, check which forecast it comes from and when it was published.

StoneX Specialty Coffee, a trading and analysis firm, now expects a global surplus of about 10 million bags in 2026, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025.

What could change the picture

A large surplus does not guarantee low prices for long. Three things could push prices back up:

Weather. A strong El Niño, a warming pattern in the Pacific that affects rainfall, could disrupt flowering and ripening in Brazil.
Speculation. Traders are positioning for more price swings, which can move prices quickly in either direction.
Forecast revisions. Both the USDA and Conab numbers are estimates, and they change as the season progresses.

Who is serving your coffee now

Price is not the only thing shifting. Market research cited in late September 2026 found that Greggs now has 2,737 UK outlets, just ahead of Costa Coffee with 2,707. The same reporting linked the change to shoppers using non-traditional coffee sellers alongside dedicated coffee chains, with value playing a bigger role in choices.

For a drinker, that means more places selling coffee, and more reasons to compare what you pay for what you get. Independent cafes often compete on freshly ground coffee made to order and home-baked food.

Will cafe prices come down?

Bean prices are one cost among many for a cafe. Rent, staff, milk, energy and packaging all feed into the price on the board, and a cafe may not change its prices just because raw coffee has fallen. Some may hold prices to rebuild margins; others may pass savings on. Without reliable UK figures, the safest approach is to check the prices where you buy.

What to do next

If you drink coffee out: check menu prices before assuming they will fall, and compare a few local options rather than just one chain.
If you brew at home: buy smaller bags more often if you find a roaster whose prices have eased, and keep an eye on freshness dates.
If you run a cafe or shop: read supplier price lists carefully. A fall in raw coffee does not always mean your buying price falls by the same amount.

Key points

Raw coffee bean prices fell sharply in September 2026 to a three-month low.
Barchart linked the fall to surpluses, good growing weather and rising Brazilian exports.
USDA and Conab forecast record or near-record Brazilian crops, but their numbers differ by about 4.3 million bags.
Bean prices do not translate directly into cup prices.
Weather and speculation could still push prices back up.

Frequently asked questions

Are coffee prices going down in the UK? Bean prices fell in September 2026, but no reliable UK data was available to show that cafe or shop prices have dropped. Check the prices where you buy.

Why is coffee so volatile? Weather and harvest size strongly affect supply, and traders bet on future prices, which can move the market quickly. Reporting from September 2026 pointed to both factors.

Is Brazil having a record coffee harvest? Forecasts say yes, at least by the USDA’s estimate. Conab’s estimate is lower and still below the record crops of 2018 and 2020, so the two forecasts disagree.

What is the difference between arabica and robusta? Both are traded coffee types, and they can move differently. In its September 2026 estimate, Conab forecast robusta output down from last year’s record, while arabica output was forecast to rise sharply.

Does a lower bean price mean a cheaper latte? Not automatically. A cafe’s costs include much more than beans, and prices on the board change for many reasons.

Could coffee prices rise again? Yes. Weather, especially a strong El Niño, and changing forecasts could push prices back up.

Visiting Shaldon?

If you are in Shaldon, The Coffee Rush on The Green serves freshly ground coffee and homemade cakes, and it is a good place to compare a well-made cup with what you usually buy. Ask the team what they are pouring this week.

Sources

perfectdailygrind.com